FORECAST OF RADIONUCLIDE TRANSFER IN THE KARA SEA IN RESULT OF A RADIATION ACCIDENT NEAR THE PORT OF SABETTA

Using the Lagrangian-Eulerian model of ocean-sea ice dynamics and the transfer of Lagrangian particles, the spread of radionuclides in the waters of the Gulf of Ob and the Kara Sea is predicted. Rapid, within ~2-7 days, transfer of radionuclides by the atmosphere from the source near the port of Sabetta and their deposition on the water area surface is assumed. Scenarios of a radiation accident in summer and winter seasons are considered, with various positions of the accident site and atmospheric transfer. Based on the results of the study, it might be concluded that sea ice significantly affects the transfer of radionuclides in the Arctic seas. Radionuclides might stay preserved in sea ice for a year and more, thereby preserving the memory of past radiation accidents. Once in sea water, radionuclides drop down towards bottom, and in the case of shallow waters, they reach the bottom layer after several months and stay at the bottom layer. However, once frozen into sea ice, radionuclides can travel over significant distances during several years.

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