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Home » Archive of journals » Volume 14, No. 3, 2024 » Climatic changes of air temperature in the western part of the Russian Arctic in 1940—2099 according to ERA5 data and CMIP6 models

CLIMATIC CHANGES OF AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC IN 1940—2099 ACCORDING TO ERA5 DATA AND CMIP6 MODELS

JOURNAL: Volume 14, No. 3, 2024, p. 334-349

HEADING: Research activities in the Arctic

AUTHORS: Serykh, I.V., Tolstikov, A.V.

ORGANIZATIONS: P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Northern Water Problems Institute of the Karelian Research Centre of the RAS

DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2024-3-334-349

UDC: 551.583

The article was received on: 02.02.2024

Keywords: White sea, Barents sea, climate change, Kara sea, surface air temperature, CMIP6 models

Bibliographic description: Serykh, I.V., Tolstikov, A.V. Climatic changes of air temperature in the western part of the Russian Arctic in 1940—2099 according to ERA5 data and CMIP6 models. Arktika: ekologiya i ekonomika. [Arctic: Ecology and Economy], 2024, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 334-349. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2024-3-334-349. (In Russian).

Abstract:

The study deals with the climatic changes in surface air temperature (SAT) in the western part of the Russian Arctic (60—80° N, 30—90° E). To analyze the changes in SAT that occurred over the period 1940—2023, we use data from the ERA5 reanalysis and the results of the Historical model experiment CMIP6. Future changes in SAT until the end of the 21st century we consider based on the results of SSP experiments of CMIP6 models. An increase in the average SAT of the studied region by 2—4°C is shown from approximately the mid-1970s to 2023. Moreover, this increase in SAT is most noticeable in the White and Kara Seas, as well as in the north and east of the Barents Sea. CMIP6 models based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios produce markedly different forecasts for the increase in SAT for the region under study until the end of the 21st century. Thus, depending on the scenario, the average increase in SAT in the region under study by the end of the 21st century can range from 2—4°C to 6—10°, with stronger growth of SAT in the north of the region under study. At the same time, with little dependence on the future scenario, CMIP6 models predict that in the next 30 years the average SAT of the western part of the Russian Arctic will increase by approximately 2—3°C, and in the north of the region under study its increase may be more than 3°C, and in south — about 2°C. Thus, the difference in average SAT between the north and south of the region under study will decrease throughout the 21st century under any of the SSP scenarios considered.

Finance info: I. V. Serykh carried out this research within the framework of the state assignment of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences on topic no. FMWE-2024-0017 “Long-term evolution of ocean circulation and flows at the ocean-atmosphere boundary and the ocean role in climate formation”. A. V. Tolstikov carried out this research within the framework of the state assignment of the Institute of Water Problems of the North of the Karelian Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences on topic no. FMEN-2021-0004 “Comprehensive studies of the White Sea and watershed for development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.”

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DOI 10.25283/2223-4594