REGIONAL BIOGEOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF “FAST” CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC IN THE 21ST CENTURY

With the general “warming” trend in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation-(AZRF) up to 0.8—0.9°C/10 years, climate changes manifest in different ways, and biota reacts not only at different rates, but also in different directions. The Arctic “greening” (increasing the vegetation cover productivity), manifests itself unevenly and often due to different processes. In addition, the “initial positions” in the state of the Arctic biota at the beginning of the “fast” climate changes were different in the regions of the Russian Arctic. All this allows us to conclude that models demonstrating the response of Arctic ecosystems to warming, that is their almost complete disappearance with continuing temperature trends by the end of the 21st century, are not correct, and the forecasts for biotic changes are wrong. Besides the methodology of “direct” assessments of the temperature increase effects on Arctic biota by spatial extrapolations (shifting borders and replacing some biomes with others, the disappearance of cryophilic species and expansion of thermophilic plants and animal species in their place, etc.) ignores the regional specifics of the observed phenomena. The article materials are directed precisely against this “mechanistic” approach. The article considers the regional biogeographic effects of climate change in the Arctic — changes in the composition of flora and fauna, ranges of Arctic species, their migrations, etc. For analysis six regions are identified that have multidirectional and different rates of biota transformation processes — Kola-Belomorsky, Bolshezemelsky (Nenets), Yamalo-Gydansky, Taimyrsky, North-Yakutsky, North-Chukchi and South Chukchi, where the climate trends in the last three decades differed significantly in both vector and intensity (by 2 or more times). It is concluded that the results are important for developing a strategy for using biological resources, preserving the biodiversity of the Russian Arctic and protecting its territory.

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