ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATIC CHANGES IN THE ARCTIC IN THE 21ST CENTURY BASED ON THE COMBINED FORECAST

The investigation is made of interconnections amongst climatic processes in the North Atlantic and Arctic. It is shown that ice melting in the Arctic in 70’s-90’s of the 20th century is connected with climate variability in the North Atlantic well presented in the indexes of multidecadal oscillation and intensity of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. As well, the latter reflects climatic changes in the heat and fresh water fluxes from the North Atlantic surface to the mid-latitude atmosphere. We suppose the physicostatistical scenario of climate change (the combined scenario) based on composition of the so-called “greenhouse” (external forcing) and “cyclic” (internal variability of climatic system) effects. The numerical simulations were performed with the ocean general circulation model for retrospective and prognostic reconstruction of thermohaline circulation and sea ice in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Analysis of the simulation results and investigation of their cyclic properties let us find a new approach to description of climatic variability of the Arctic and Northern sea route. This approach lets one describe temperature growth concerned with both greenhouse gas emission and climate variability (particularly, the observed cooling in 1950-1970 years). The proposed combined scenario of the climatic change presents the possible cooling in the Arctic and the corresponding decrease of the shipping season in the Northern sea route for the next 10-20 years. Overall, the aim of the research is to estimate how much the North Atlantic variability influences Eurasia climate variations, in order to allow for them by the following forecasting.

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