FIRES IN THE ARCTIC ZONE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: NEW ASSESSMENTS, THE ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES

The article examines various aspects of the spread and dynamics of fires in the Russian Arctic in the 21st century. Using the archives of the MODIS sensor, the researchers have constructed a map of the distribution of thermal anomalies (thermal points) for the period 2000—2024, and updated the statistics of fires in the Arctic regions. According to the analysis of the archives of the MODIS sensor from the Terra and Aqua satellites over the past 25 years (2000—2024), fires have covered about 36 million hectares in the Russian Arctic, of which about 12 million hectares are forests. The most “burnable” territories and the dynamics of fires there have been identified. Under climate change and intense climate warming in the Russian Arctic (the trend of annual temperatures up to 0,7—1.0°C over 10 years), an increase has been reported in vegetation productivity (by 10—15%), expansion of shrubs into the tundra and, accordingly, an increase in the reserves of above-ground plant residues (combustible materials). In the last decade, against the background of increasing aridity and frequency of thunderstorms with lightning, especially in the continental regions of Yakutia and Chukotka, a trend of expansion of the area of ​​Arctic fires and their negative consequences is observed. The research results will help in monitoring and fighting fires. In connection with the suspension of Russia’s cooperation with the Arctic Council, the authors emphasize the need to maintain international contacts in the field of fire monitoring in the Arctic and the unification of their control methods.

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