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ICE COVER OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC SEAS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE IN THE CURRENT CLIMATIC PERIOD
JOURNAL: Volume 14, No. 1, 2024, p. 135-146HEADING: Problems of the Northern Sea Route
AUTHORS: Timofeeva, A.B., Yulin, A.V., Ivanov, V.V., Sharatunova, M.V., Pavlova, E.A.
ORGANIZATIONS: State Research Center "Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute"
DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2024-1-135-146
UDC: 551.326.1:551.383.(268.52)
The article was received on: 30.11.2023
Keywords: Northern Sea Route, NSR, ice coverage, Russian Arctic seas, seasonal course of ice cover, reduction of ice cover, ice-free period duration increase
Bibliographic description: Timofeeva, A.B., Yulin, A.V., Ivanov, V.V., Sharatunova, M.V., Pavlova, E.A. Ice cover of the Russian Arctic seas along the Northern sea route in the current climatic period. Arktika: ekologiya i ekonomika. [Arctic: Ecology and Economy], 2024, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 135-146. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2024-1-135-146. (In Russian).
Abstract:
The paper considers the ice cover in the Arctic seas of the Northern Sea Route (NSR): Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi since 1946. A comparison of the long-term course of integral average annual air temperature anomalies and seasonal average ice cover anomalies allows identifying a year 2005, starting from which the sea ice cover sharply decreases in a good agreement with the increase and accumulation of positive air temperature anomalies. The researchers reveal that the average level of ice cover has decreased by 1.7 times since 2005, however, the values of the range of fluctuations and standard deviation have remained almost unchanged, i.e. ice cover fluctuates in the same range, but at a lower average level. The main shipping routes are cleared about three decades earlier. The repeatability of complete cleansing of the seas has increased to 60—90%.
Finance info: The work was carried out within the framework of the CSTP program no. 5.1.2 “Development of existing and development of new methods and technologies for long-term (monthly and seasonal) forecasting of elements of the ice-hydrological regime of the Arctic seas, lower reaches and estuaries of rivers in conditions of climate change”
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