A CURRENT STATE AND FORECASTING OF THE SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC SYSTEM OF THE WHITE SEA WATERSHED WITH USE OF COGNITIVE SIMULATION

A cognitive model has been developed that reflects the dynamics of the environment, the economic and social processes taking place in the regions of the catchment area of the White Sea. The influence of climate change, the peculiarities of economic activity on the environment (to the sea ecosystems and the catchment area) and the living of the population of the RF subjects of the catchment area of the White Sea (Beloe more) are considered. The features of the economical development of the regions are shown, which are determined by the dynamics of investments, while in the northern regions of the catchment area of the White Sea in the 90s of the XX century they decreased by 5-10 times, and only two regions of the catchment (Vologda and Arkhangelsk regions) by 2010 reach the pre-reform level. The remaining regions received investments about half as much as in 1990. The current state and changes in the social sphere and the environment are considered, which depends on the amount of pollution, the supply of nutrients to the catchment and to the sea, as well as emissions to the atmosphere formed both in the catchment area, and cross-border transfers. The model is designed to predict at a qualitative level of the ongoing changes of the complex socio-ecological and economical system, under different scenarios of natural climatic changes and economical activities. This can serve as a basis for constructing a system of quantitative models, for developing of decision support systems to achieve sustainable development of the socio-economic system of the regions.

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