USE OF MULTICRITERIA APPROACH AND METHODS OF FUZZY MATHEMATICS FOR ESTIMATING DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS OF ARCTIC SEAS IN TERMS OF SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE BARENTS SEA

Development of the Arctic regions is one of the most important strategic tasks for Russia. Among the Arctic vast natural resources hydrocarbons are one of the most significant for the development of the northern territories and their main transport route — the Northern Sea Route (NSR), but complex environmental conditions significantly limit the possibilities for their active development. South-Eastern part of Barents Sea (including Pechora Sea) is marked by sufficiently high geological exploration and acceptable weather conditions, that making it the best place to begin a full-scale development in the Arctic region. This is a reason to apply a new technique of classification, ranking and forecasting to technical accessibility assessment of this region. The area of interest was divided into several subareas, each of which being analyzed in terms of its technical accessibility on each of preselected criteria (weather conditions, presence of ice, sea depth, flora & fauna, etc.). Then fuzzy clusterization and aggregation techniques were used to map accessibility conditions of the South-Eastern part of the Barents Sea. The fuzzy methodology enabled division of the area into different classes repressenting its technologically accessibility (from most favorable to most challenging conditions). Further application of fuzzy ranking assisted in showing the best sequence of the selected subareas development. This approach enabled the authors to build a very illustrative and informative technical accessibility map of the South-Eastern part of the Barents Sea and to propose a staged development of this region starting from the western part, then central, south and eastern parts. This mapping technique of accessibility assessment gives an opportunity to use a system approach to the development of offshore resources in a middle- and long-term outlooks and enables evaluation of the existing development technology efficiency. Such an approach allows to estimate regional development from a different prospective and helps to better understand the challenging complexity of the Arctic areas.

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