ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARCTIC SHELF RESOURCES

The paper proposes a method of mathematical modeling and assessment of environmental risk for the shelf ecosystems of the Arctic seas under the combined impact of natural, anthropogenic and climatic factors. The method is based on the use of observational data, dynamic models of the ecosystem state and probabilistic eco-screening risk assessments. The input data for the risk assessment model can be the data of field observations of the organisms’ biomass or the simulating results of the ecosystem state using dynamic models. For the Arctic shelf, the data used are derived from generalized field observations of the annual variations in phytoplankton biomass within highly productive and low productive ecosystems.

The proposed approach makes it possible to move from a design-fixed (laid in the project for the development of shelf resources) value of allowableimpact on the ecosystem up to its variations during the year. Such changes will be determined by variations in environmental risk. Variations of the tolerance impact on the ecosystem during the year will reduce the economic costs of maintaining environmental safety. The paper substantiates the primacy of determining the allowablerisk magnitude of the ecological systems, and then the allowableintensity of anthropogenic impact, which opens up the possibility to answer the questions about principle admissibility of a certain scale accidents.

The relationship between the allowablerisk for the ecosystem and the allowableprobability of anthropogenic impact objectifies the value of risk assessments under emergency and the normal operating conditions of engineering systems. Using the proposed method for specific ecosystems will help to harmonize environmental and economic requirements in ensuring the environmental safety at the development of shelf resources.

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