EVALUATIONS OF THE FREQUENCY POLLUTION TRENDS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OF THE REGIONS OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC IN THE 21ST CENTURY

A study was made of the features of the dynamics of long-range pollution in the regions of the Russian Arctic in the current situation, in the short and long term, taking into account the changing climate. A methodical approach to the assessment of trends in long-range atmospheric pollution for specified ecologically significant zones is formulated, taking into account the predicted climatic changes. A mathematical model that realizes this approach has been developed, and calculations of the introduced zonal and meridional pollution indices describing the amount of transported impurities in the latitudinal and meridian directions for January, April, July, October and year for the period 1980—2050 have been performed. The obtained results of calculations indicate, in general, quite definite tendencies of long-term atmospheric pollution: for some strengthening in 2020—2050. in comparison with the period 1980—2015. the contribution of the west-eastern impurity transport to atmospheric pollution over the Kola Peninsula and Taimyr Peninsula. These results are important for the development of proposals for ensuring the environmental safety of the Russian Arctic and planning for the economic development of the country’s territories that affect the pollution of the Arctic regions. In particular, the relevance of controlling transboundary air pollution from the nearest European countries is increasing.

1. Vinogradova A. A., Veremeychik A. O. Modelnyye otsenki soderzhaniya antropogennoy sazhi (black carbon) v atmosfere Rossiyskoy Arktiki. [Model estimates of the content of anthropogenic black carbon (black carbon) in the atmosphere of the Russian Arctic]. Optika atmosfery i okeana, 2013, vol. 26, pp. 443—451. (In Russian).

2. Vinogradova A. A. Tendentsii izmeneniya istochnikov i stokov antropogennykh tyazhelykh metallov v atmosfere Arktiki na rubezhe KhKh i XXI vekov. [Trends in the sources and sinks of anthropogenic heavy metals in the Arctic atmosphere at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries]. Meteorologicheskiye i geofizicheskiye issledovaniya. Moscow, Paulsen, 2011, pp. 215—234. (In Russian).

3. Elanskiy N. F., Belikov I. B., Berezina E. V. Brenninkmayyer K. A. M., Buklikova N. N., Vaysflog L., Vartiaynen Е., Golitsyn G. S., Gorchakov G. I., Granberg I. G., Grisenko A. M., Yelanskiy S. N., Еlokhov A. S., Zhernikov K. V., Igayev A. I., Kozlova A. A., Kopeykin V. M., Kruttsen P., Kuokka S., Lavrova O. V., Lisitsina L. V., Moiseyenko K. B., Oberlander Е., Obvintsev Yu. I., Pankratova N. V., Postylyakov O. V., Putts Е., Romashkin P. A., Safronov A. N., Skorokhod A. I., Tarasova O. A., Turnbull Dzh. S., Khorst D. F., Khol’zinger R., Shenfel’d K. P., Shumskiy R. A., Elkins Dzh. V. Sostav atmosfery nad Severnoy Evraziyey: eksperimenty TROICA. [Composition of the atmosphere over Northern Eurasia: experiments TROICA]. Moscow, Agrospas, 2009, 81 p. (In Russian).

4. Makosko A. A., Matesheva A. V. Dolgosrochnyy prognoz riska dlya zdorovia vsledstviye tekhnogennogo i biogennogo zagryazneniya atmosfery v usloviyakh izmenyayushchegosya klimata. [Long-term prognosis of health risks due to technogenic and biogenic pollution of the atmosphere in a changing climate]. Zdorovye naseleniya Rossii: vliyaniye okruzhayushchey sredy v usloviyakh izmenyayushchegosya klimata. Pod obshch. red. A. I. Grigoryeva. Moscow, Nauka, 2014, pp. 251—267. (In Russian).

5. Makosko A. A., Matesheva A. V. O dolgosrochnom prognoze riskov zabolevaniy naseleniya ot khimicheskogo zagryazneniya atmosfery. [On the longterm prognosis of the risks of diseases of the population against chemical pollution of the atmosphere]. Ros. khim. zhurn, 2006, vol. 50, no. 5, pp. 48—54. (In Russian).

6. Matesheva A. V. O vozmeshchenii ushcherba zdorovyu naseleniya v gorodakh Arkticheskoy zony Rossiyskoy Federatsii ot zagryazneniya atmosfernogo vozdukha. [On compensation of damage to public health in the cities of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation from air pollution]. Arktika: ekologiya i ekonomika, 2017, no. 3 (27), pp. 111—117. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2017-3-111-117. (In Russian).

7. Marchuk G. I. Matematicheskoye modelirovaniye v probleme okruzhayushchey sredy. [Mathematical modeling in the environmental problem]. Moscow, Nauka, 1982, 320 p.

8. Aloyan A. E. Dinamika i kinetika gazovykh primesey i aerozoley v atmosfere. [Dynamics and kinetics of gas impurities and aerosols in the atmosphere]. Kurs lektsiy. Moscow, IVM RAN, 2002, 201 p. (In Russian).

9. Crutzen P. J., Birks J. W. The atmosphere after a nuclear war: Twilight at noon. Ambio, 1982, 11, pp. 114—125.

10. Aleksandrov V. V., Stenchikov G. L. On the modeling of the climatic consequences of the nuclear war. Proc. Applied Math. Computing Centre. USSR Academy of Sciences. Moscow, 1983, 21 p.

11. Stenchikov G. L. Klimaticheskiye posledstviya yadernoy voyny: vybrosy i rasprostraneniye opticheski aktivnykh primesey v atmosfere. [Climatic consequences of nuclear war: emissions and distribution of optically active impurities in the atmosphere]. Soobshcheniya po priklad. matematike. Moscow, Vychislit. tsentr AN SSSR, 1985, 32 p. (In Russian).

12. Sadokov V. P., Shteynbok D. B., Melkonyan P. A. Primeneniye sopryazhennykh uravneniy k zadache modelirovaniya globalnogo perenosa atmosfernoy primesi. [Application of the conjugate equations to the problem of modeling the global transport of atmospheric admixture]. Tr. GMTs SSSR, 1978, vyp. 204, pp. 65—70.

13. Kats A. L. Sezonnyye izmeneniya obshchey tsirkulyatsii atmosfery i dolgosrochnyye prognozy. [Seasonal changes in general atmospheric circulation and long-term forecasts]. Leningrad, GIMIZ, 1960, 270 p. (In Russian).

14. Makosko A. A., Matesheva A. V. Opyt identifikatsii istochnikov khimicheskogo zagryazneniya atmosfery v Moskovskom regione. [Experience in identifying sources of chemical atmospheric pollution in the Moscow region]. Ros. khim. zhurn, 2016, vol. 60, no. 3, pp. 113—120. (In Russian).

15. Marchuk G. I., Dymnikov V. P., Zalesnyy V. B. Matematicheskiye modeli v geofizicheskoy gidrodinamike i chislennyye metody ikh realizatsii. [Mathematical models in geophysical hydrodynamics and numerical methods for their implementation]. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1987, 296 p. (In Russian).

16. Samarskiy A. A., Nikolayev E. S. Metody resheniya setochnykh uravneniy. [Methods for solving grid equations]. Moscow, Nauka, 1978, 592 p. (In Russian).

17. Saha S. et al. 2010. NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) Selected Hourly Time-Series Products. January 1979 to December 2010 / Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Computational and Information Systems Lab. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5065/D6513W89.

18. NCEP FNL Operational Model Global Tropospheric Analyses. continuing from July 1999. Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Computational and Information Systems Lab. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5065/D6M043C6.

19. Volodin E., Diansky N. INMCM4 model output prepared for CMIP5 RCP8.5. served by ESGF. World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ. 2013. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.INC4r8.

20. Nekipelov A. D., Makosko A. A. Perspektivy fundamentalnykh nauchnykh issledovaniy v Arktike. [Prospects for fundamental scientific research in the Arctic]. Arkticheskiy region: problemy mezhdunarodnogo sotrudnichestva: Khrestomatiya v 3 t, vol. 2. Ros. sovet po mezhdunar. delam. Moscow, Aspekt press, 2013, pp. 370—380. (In Russian).