ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF THE COPPER-NICKEL PRODUCTION IMPACT ON THE ECOLOGY OF THE KOLA NORTH: MODELING RESULTS

The authors examine the results of modeling the dynamics of nickel and copper concentrations in soils, water, and bottom sediments of lakes located within the Pechenganikel smelter’s footprint on the Kola Peninsula, and give a prediction of the rate of recovery and the state of natural environments by 2050, following the closure of the smelter in 2020. They have found that aquatic systems are more responsive to reduced anthropogenic loads, while soils exhibit the greatest inertia. According to the forecast, Ni and Cu high concentrations in lake water will be due to leaching from soils, where metal concentrations will be approximately three times higher than even the elevated regional background.

1. Vareda J. P., Valente A. J. M., Durães L. Assessment of heavy metal pollution from anthropogenic activities and remediation strategies: A review. J. Environ. Manage, 2019, vol. 246, pp. 101—118. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.05.126.

2. Pacyna J. M., Pacyna E. G. An assessment of global and regional emissions of trace metals to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources worldwide). Environ. Rev., 2011, vol. 9, pp. 269—298. DOI: 10.1139/er-9-4-269.

3. Van Pelt R. S., Shekhter E. G., Barnes M. A. et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of heavy metal deposition resulting from a smelter in El Paso, Texas. J. Geochem. Explor., 2020., vol. 210, p. 106414. doi: 10.1016/j.gexplo.2019.106414.

4. Gunn J., Keller W., Negusanti J. et al. Ecosystem recovery after emission reductions: Sudbury, Canada. Water, Air, Soil Pollut., 1995, vol. 85, pp. 1783—1788.

5. Narendrula R., Nkongolo K. K., Beckett P. et al. Total and bioavailable metals in two contrasting mining regions (Sudbury in Canada and Lubumbashi in DR-Congo): relation to genetic variation in plant populations. Chem. Ecol., 2013, vol. 29 (2), pp. 111—127. doi: 10.1080/02757540.2012.696617.

6. Kierczak J., Potysz A., Pietranik A. et al. Environmental impact of the historical Cu smelting in the Rudawy Janowickie Mountains (south-western Poland). J. Geochem. Explor., 2013, vol. 124., pp. 183—194. doi: 10.1016/j.gexplo.2012.09.008J.

7. Pichugin E. A., Shenfeld B. E., Somova T. N. Assessment of the impact of accumulated harm objects in the Arctic on the natural environment components. Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2024, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 249—260. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2024-2-249-260. (In Russian).

8. Evseev A. V., Dushkova D. O., Goretskaya A. G. Biomonitoring of aerothechnogenic contamination of ecosystems in the North of Russia by heavy metals. Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2020, no. 3 (39), pp. 23—33. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2020-3-23-33. (In Russian).

9. Moiseenko T. I., Megorskii V. V., Gashkina N. A. et al. Water pollution effect on population health in an industrial northern region. Water Resources, 2010, no. 37, pp. 194—203. DOI: 10.1134/S0097807810020077. (In Russian).

10. Evdokimova G. A., Mozgova N. P., Korneykova M. V. The content and toxicity of heavy metals in soils affected by aerial emissions from the Pechenganickel plant. Eurasian Soil Science, 2014, no. 47 (5), pp. 504—510. DOI: 10.1134/S1064229314050044.

11. Moiseenko T. I., Gashkina N. A. Formation of chemical composition of the waters of the Murmansk Region under the conditions of functioning of mining and metallurgical enterprises. Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2015, no. 4 (20), pp. 4—13. (In Russian).

12. Dauvalter V. A., Kashulin N. A., Denisov D. B. Trends in variations of heavy metal content in the bottom deposits of the Norhern Fennoscandia lakes in last centuries. Tr. KarNTs RAS, 2015, no. 9, pp. 62—75. (In Russian).

13. Moiseenko T. I., Gashkina N. A., Dinu M. I. et al. Water Chemistry of Arctic Lakes under Airborne Contamination of Watersheds. Water, 2020, vol. 12, p. 1659. DOI: 10.3390/w12061659.

14. Sokolov A. V., Moiseenko T. I., Gashkina N. A. et al. Modeling and Predicting the Environment State in the Impact Area of a Copper–Nickel Plant: A Balanced Model of the Transformations of Atmospheric Deposition at the Catchment and in Lake. Geochem. Int., 2023, no. 61 (7), pp. 768—779. DOI: 10.1134/S0016702923060095.

15. Sokolov A. V., Voloshinov V. V. Model Selection by Balanced Identification: The Interplay of Optimization and Distributed Computing. Open Comput. Sci., 2020, vol. 10, pp. 283—295. DOI: 10.1515/comp-2020-0132.

16. https://github.com/distcomp/SvF/tree/main/Examples/25-Kola-Pollution.

17. Boyd R., Barnes S.-J., De Caritat P. et al. Emissions from the copper–nickel industry on the Kola Peninsula and at Noril’sk, Russia. Atmos. Environ., 2009, vol. 43, pp. 1474—1480. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.12.003.

18. Tipping E., Rothwell J. J., Shotbolt L. et al. Dynamic modelling of atmospherically-deposited Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb in Pennine catchments (northern England). Environ. Pollut., 2010, vol. 158, pp. 1521—1529. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2009.12.026.

19. Nriagu J. O., Wong H. K. T., Lawson G. et al. Saturation of ecosystems with toxic metals in Sudbury basin, Ontario, Canada. Sci. Total Environ., 1998, vol. 223, pp. 99—117. DOI: 10.1016/s0048-9697(98)00284-8.

20. Schindler M., Kamber B. S. High-resolution lake sediment reconstruction of industrial impact in a world-class mining and smelting center, Sudbury, Ontario, Canada. Appl. Geochem., 2013, vol. 37, pp. 102—116. DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2013.07.014.

21. Minolfi G., Jarva J., Tarvainen T. Humus samples as an indicator of long-term anthropogenic input — A case study from southern Finland. J. Geochem. Explor., 2017, vol. 181, pp. 205—218. DOI: 10.1016/j.gexplo.2017.06.024.

22. Trace elements in boreal forests. Moscow, Nauka, 2004, 616 р. (In Russian).

23. Šillerová H., Chrastný V., Vítková M. et al. Stable isotope tracing of Ni and Cu pollution in North-East Norway: Potentials and drawbacks. Pollut., 2017, vol. 228, p. 149e157. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2017.05.030.

24. Water quality standards for fishery water bodies, including norms of maximum permissible concentrations of toxic matters in fishery basins. Moscow, VNIRO, 2011, 257 p. (In Russian).

25. Alloway B. J. Sources of heavy metals and metalloids in soils. Heavy Metals in Soils: Trace Metals and Metalloids in Soils and Their Bioavailability. Dordrecht, Springer Netherlands, 2013, pp. 11—50. DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-4470-7_2.

26. Moiseenko T. I., Bazova M. M. Lakes of the Kola North in the context of declining man-made releases and global warming. Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2026, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 193—203. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2026-2-193-203. (In Russian).

27. Makosko A. A., Matesheva A. V., Lysova O. V. Study of the risk for plant ecosystems of the Russian Arctic from atmospheric pollution in a changing climate (1980—2050). Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2023, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 138—148. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2023-1-138-148. (In Russian).

28. Makosko A. A., Matesheva A. V. Assessment of the long-range pollution trends of the atmosphere in the Arctic zone of Russia in 1980—2050 considering climate change scenarios. Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2020, no. 1 (37), pp. 45—52. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2020-1-45-52. (In Russian).