STUDY OF THE RISK FOR PLANT ECOSYSTEMS OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC FROM ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION IN A CHANGING CLIMATE (1980—2050)

The authors studied the risk dynamics for plant ecosystems on the mainland of the Russian Arctic from atmospheric pollution by sulfur dioxide from potential sources (including sources of transboundary pollution) in 1980—2050 in terms of the impact of weather and climatic factors under two base scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).
They used the U.S. EPA environmental health risk assessment methodology basing on critical levels of substances in ambient air for plants, taking into account vegetation group and characteristic landscape or natural-climatic zone. Methodology for estimating the impurity concentration is based on solving the adjoint equation of impurity transfer and diffusion.
Calculations have revealed that in most of the Russian Arctic over the past four decades, there has been a downward tendency in the hazard to plants from atmospheric pollution. In some areas, this tendency is significant (the north of the ETR and Western Siberia). A study of further trends in most of the Arctic zone showed insignificant risk dynamics, characterized, however, by some inter-scenario variability. Against the background of a milder climatic scenario (RCP4.5), some scatter in the direction of the hazard trend becomes noticeable in the Russian Arctic, but in general, a trend towards an increase in risk for plants can be noted. At the same time, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the hazard trend decreases, with the exception of the north of the ETR, where there is an increase in risk of about 10%. The observed risk trends and inter-scenario variability are due to changes in overall atmospheric circulation from climate change and, as a result, changes in the amount of incoming impurity concentrations and areas (sources) of influence on the Russian Arctic regions during long-range pollution from NW-SW to SW-SE directions.
The findings are relevant to strategic planning of the development of the Arctic territories and measures to ensure environmental safety, in particular, for the preservation of the natural identity of the Russian Arctic.

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