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Home Archive of journals Volume 12, No. 2, 2022 Acceptable risk for Arctic shelf ecosystems based on probabilistic model calculations


JOURNAL: Volume 12, No. 2, 2022, p. 172-182

HEADING: Research activities in the Arctic

AUTHORS: Solovieva, N.V., Lobkovsky, L.I.

ORGANIZATIONS: P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences

DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2022-2-172-182

UDC: 551.46.072:51

The article was received on: 11.10.2021

Keywords: probabilistic assessments of environmental risk, acceptable risk, shelf ecosystems

Bibliographic description: Solovieva, N.V., Lobkovsky, L.I. Acceptable risk for Arctic shelf ecosystems based on probabilistic model calculations. Arktika: ekologiya i ekonomika. [Arctic: Ecology and Economy], 2022, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 172-182. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2022-2-172-182. (In Russian).


The article presents environmental risk assessments for Arctic shelf ecosystems based on a probabilistic model. Calculations were carried out using observations of seasonal variations of phytoplankton biomass in the Arctic seas. To calculate the environmental risk according to the probabilistic model, the authors used data on the probabilities of impact on marine ecosystems from stressors, taking into account the risks from technological processes of offshore resource development. The results made it possible to calculate the probabilities of acceptable impacts on highly productive and low-productive ecosystems of the Arctic shelf. Comparison of risk modeling results showed that due to the low productivity of marine ecosystems, reliability requirements for technological processes that ensure the safety of Arctic resource development should not be reduced.

Finance info: The work was carried out according to the State assignment, topic No. FMWE-2021-0004.


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DOI 10.25283/2223-4594