ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN THE SCOTS PINE LINEAR INCREMENTS IN THE PECHORA-ILYCHSKY RESERVE BASED ON THE CLIMATIC FORECAST OF THE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC

For the Arctic region of the European territory of Russia, the authors validated the global climate models of the CMIP6 project with the ERA5 reanalysis data. They identified the most accurate model, based on which made the forecast of surface temperature for the months of July-September under the conditions of two scenarios: high SSP8.5 emissions and low SSP2.6. The results give an idea of the average warming in the next 29 years for these months by 1.8—2.0 (°C). The researchers investigated the response of the increments of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in the Pechora-Ilychsky Reserve to the predicted warming. In addition, they revealed a significant effect of precipitation amounts on the growth parameters of forest stands. The built regression model reflects the total contribution of these climatic factors to the formation of pine increments.

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