THE AIR TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY DURING THE COLD PERIOD ON THE KOLA PENINSULA AS MODIFICATION FACTOR OF THE ICE REGIME

The paper considers the long-term spatial and temporal air temperature variability on the Kola Peninsula according to 26 hydro-meteorological stations and the ice regime of rivers according to 13 hydrological stations for 1950—2018 (base period 1950—1980, and control period 1981—2018). The cold season of the year on the Kola Peninsula lasts from October to the first decade of May, the average temperature for the season is –6.2°C. The average increase in air temperature during the cold season was 1.1 °C.

The researchers showed that the influence of climate changes on the ice regime of rivers in the autumn period is leveled by the specificity of the hydrological regime of the Kola Peninsula rivers. The absence of trends to a shift in the formation timing of ice phenomena and ice cover of rivers of the Kola Peninsula can be explained, on the one hand, with lake regulation and the widespread formation of sludge, on the other hand, the need for relatively weak frosts for the freeze-up formation, the characteristics of which, according to the analysis of average daily air temperatures in October-November did not undergo significant changes within the Kola Peninsula. In winter, due to the general climate warming, the maximum thickness of the ice decreased by 5—10 centimeters. In the spring period, there is a 6-day reduction in the freeze-up duration due to a shift in the timing of river opening, which is associated with an increase and earlier transition through 0°C of air temperature. The highest levels of ice drift are characterized by statistically insignificant downward trends and a close to normal distribution. Congestions and ice jams on the Kola Peninsula rivers are observed annually and depend on local hydrological factors. Due to the floodplain absence for most rivers, the potential risks of flooding are insignificant; therefore, the development of forecasting techniques for the highest level of ice drift is impractical.

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