Home » Archive of journals » Issue 4(32) 2018 » Insolation contrast of the Earth and changes in the sea ice extent in the Northern hemisphere
INSOLATION CONTRAST OF THE EARTH AND CHANGES IN THE SEA ICE EXTENT IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHEREJOURNAL: 2018, ¹4(32), p. 86-94
RUBRIC: Research activities in the Arctic
AUTHORS: V.M. Fedorov, P.B. Grebennikov
ORGANIZATIONS: Lomonosov Moscow State University
The article was received on: 24.07.2018
Keywords: sea ice cover, insolation, solar radiation, climate forecast
Bibliographic description: V.M. Fedorov, P.B. Grebennikov Insolation contrast of the Earth and changes in the sea ice extent in the Northern hemisphere. The Arctic: ecology and economy, 2018, no. 4(32), pp. 86-94. DOI:10.25283/2223-4594-2018-4-86-94. (In Russian).
The calculations of insolation of the Earth and its hemispheres were performed with high time and spatial resolution. The analysis of changes in the extent of sea ice in the Arctic due to the long-term variability of insolation of the Northern hemisphere was carried out. The relationship between the change in sea ice extent and the change in insolation contrast was determined. The estimation of sea ice extent in the Arctic up to 2050was made on the basis of the regression equation (linear and polynomial).
The reconstructed values of the sea ice extent were compared with satellite observations. The obtained values of the minimum sea ice extent were compared with the known results of physical and mathematical modeling. The results of calculations of the minimum extent of sea ice on various physical and mathematical models were estimated.
The analysis of the obtained ensemble results (linear and polynomial solutions) shows that the average annual area of sea ice in the Northern hemisphere will be reduced by 0.649 million km2within 2017 and 2050. The annual minimum sea ice area will be reduced by 1.105 million km2within the same time interval. The decrease in 2050 in relation to the values of 2017 will be 5.44% and 13.93% for the average annual and minimum values of sea ice area, respectively. The seasonal amplitude will increase by 10.24% during this period.
1. Koryakin V. S. Ledniki Arktiki. [Glaciers of the Arctic]. Moscow, Nauka, 1988, 160 ð. (In Russian).
2. Fedorov V. M. Spatial and temporal variation in solar climate of the Earth in the present epoch. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and oceanic physics, 2015, vol. 51,no. 8,pp. 779 — 791.DOI: 10.1134/S0001433815080034.
3. Voeikov A. I. Klimaty zemnogo shara. V osobennosti Rossii. [The climates of the Earth, especially Russia]. Sobr. Soch. Vol. 1. Moscow, Leningrad, USSR Academy of Sciences, 1948, pð. 163—671. (In Russian).
4. Fedorov V. M. Korrelyatsionnyy analiz insolyatsii Zemli I anomalii pripoverkhnostnoy temperatury. [Correlation analysis of Earth’s insolation and anomalies of near-surface air temperature]. Uch. zap. Ros. gos. gidrometeor. un-ta, 2017, no. 45, ðð. 151—169. (In Russian).
5. Fedorov V. M. Insolyatsiya Zemli I sovremennyye izmeneniya klimata. [Insolation of the Earth and present climate changes]. Moscow, Fizmatlit, 2018, 232 p. (In Russian).
6. Giorgini J. D., Yeomans D. K., Chamberlin A. B., Chodas P. W., Jacobson R. A., Keesey M. S., Lieske J. H., Ostro S. J., Standish E. M., Wimberly R. N. JPL’s On-Line Solar System Data Service. Bull. of the American Astronomical Society, 1996, vol. 28(3), P. 1158.
7. Fedorov V. M. Mezhgodovyye variatsii prodolzhitelnosti tropicheskogo goda. [Interannual Variations in the Duration of the Tropical Year]. Dokl.RAN, 2013, vol. 451, no. 1, ðð.95—97. (In Russian).
8. Kopp G., Lean J. L. A new, lover value of total solar irradiance: evidence and climate significance. Geoph. Res. Let. 2011, vol. 38, L01706. DOI:10.1029/2010GL045777.
9. Wàlsh J. T., Chapman W. L. 20th century sea-ice variations from observational data. Ann. Glaciol, 2001, vol. 33, pp. 444—448.
10. Rayner N. A., Parker D. E., Horton E. B. et al. Global analyses of surface temperature, sea ice and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 2003,vol. 108 (D14), P. 4407.DOI:10.1029/2002JD002670.
11. Burke A. Morskie l’dy. [Sea ice]. Leningrad; Moscow, Glavsevmorput’, 1940, 96 p. (In Russian).
12. Zubov N. N. Morskie vody I l’dy. [Sea water and sea ice]. Moscow, Gidrometeoizdat, 1938, 454 p. (In Russian).
13. Morskoi led. [Sea ice]. Pod red. I. E. Frolova, V. P. Gavrilo. St. Petersburg, Gidrometeoizdat, 1997, 402 p. (In Russian).
14. Ledyanye obrazovaniya morei zapadnoi Arktiki. [Sea ice formations of the western Arctic seas]. Pod red. G. K. Zubakina. St. Petersburg, AANII, 2006, 272 p. (In Russian).
15. Zakharov V. F. L’dy Arktiki I sovremennye prirodnye protsessy. [Sea Ice of the Arctic and modern natural processes]. Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1981, 136 p.(In Russian).
16. Zakharov V. F., Malinin V. N. Morskie l’dy I klimat. [Sea ice and climate]. St. Petersburg, Gidrometeoizdat, 2000, 92 p. (In Russian).
17. Brander K., Carmack E., Denisenko S., Drinkwater K., Hansen B., Kovacs K., Livingston P., McLaughlin F., Sakshaug E. Marine Systems. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2005, pp. 453—538.
18. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge, Cambridge Univ. Press; New York, 1535 p. DOI:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
19. Wang M., Overland J. E. A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? Geophys. Res. Lett., 200936, L07502. DOI:10.1029/2009GL037820.
20. Liua J., Songb M., Hortonc R. M., Hu Y. Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 2013, vol. 110, no. 31. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1219716110.
© 2011-2019 The Arctic: ecology and economy