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INSOLATION CONTRAST OF THE EARTH AND CHANGES IN THE SEA ICE EXTENT IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
JOURNAL: No. 4(32) 2018, p. 86-94HEADING: Research activities in the Arctic
AUTHORS: Fedorov, V.M., Grebennikov, P.B.
ORGANIZATIONS: Lomonosov Moscow State University
DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2018-4-86-94
UDC: 551.46+551.32
The article was received on: 24.07.2018
Keywords: sea ice cover, insolation, solar radiation, climate forecast
Bibliographic description: Fedorov, V.M., Grebennikov, P.B. Insolation contrast of the Earth and changes in the sea ice extent in the Northern hemisphere. Arctic: ecology and economy, 2018, no. 4(32), pp. 86-94. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2018-4-86-94. (In Russian).
Abstract:
The calculations of insolation of the Earth and its hemispheres were performed with high time and spatial resolution. The analysis of changes in the extent of sea ice in the Arctic due to the long-term variability of insolation of the Northern hemisphere was carried out. The relationship between the change in sea ice extent and the change in insolation contrast was determined. The estimation of sea ice extent in the Arctic up to 2050was made on the basis of the regression equation (linear and polynomial).
The reconstructed values of the sea ice extent were compared with satellite observations. The obtained values of the minimum sea ice extent were compared with the known results of physical and mathematical modeling. The results of calculations of the minimum extent of sea ice on various physical and mathematical models were estimated.
The analysis of the obtained ensemble results (linear and polynomial solutions) shows that the average annual area of sea ice in the Northern hemisphere will be reduced by 0.649 million km2within 2017 and 2050. The annual minimum sea ice area will be reduced by 1.105 million km2within the same time interval. The decrease in 2050 in relation to the values of 2017 will be 5.44% and 13.93% for the average annual and minimum values of sea ice area, respectively. The seasonal amplitude will increase by 10.24% during this period.
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