CONSIDERING LONG-TERM CLIMATIC CHANGES IN THE KEY ZONES OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC FOR THE NAVIGATION AND INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY EXTENSION

The industrial and resource capacity in the key zones of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation — the Kola, Arkhangelsk, Nenets, Yamalo-Nenets and Vorkuta, Taimyro-Turukhansk, North-Yakutsk and Chukotka are considered. The analysis of long-term data indicating climate change — mean air temperature per year, mean winter temperature, as well as ice conditions in the marine areas adjacent to the key areas.
It has been established that since the beginning of the 1990s, a general warming trend is observed in all the studied areas, but the values of mean air temperatures during the winter in all key zones do not show steady growth. Since 2010, the winter seasons haìe become increasingly harsh. Using the spectral analysis of multi-year data, it has been established that the Kola and Arkhangelsk key zones are characterized by prevailing long-term fluctuations in air temperature and ice cover (about 75 years), while in the eastern regions — within the Yamalo-Nenets and Taimyro-Turukhansk key zones, the corresponding short-term fluctuations dominate (3-8 years), and in the Anadyr key zone — medium-term ones (about 15 years).
The paper substantiates possible consequences of the expected climate change as applied to the implementation of projects for the mineral resource development, the infrastructure formation and the navigation extension along the Northern Sea Route and in the coastal zone.

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