Bibliographic description:Smirennikova, Å.V., Ukhanova, A.V., Voronina, L.V. Assessment of the demographic potential of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation in the context of innovative development. Arktika: ekologiya i ekonomika. [Arctic: Ecology and Economy], 2021, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 19-29. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2021-1-19-29. (In Russian).
The article assesses the demographic potential of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation, taking into account the stages of its innovative development. The relevance of the study is due to the need for the formation of an innovative economy, which will help reduce its resource dependence and increase diversification, as well as improve the quality of life of the population. Recently, there has been a “devastation” of the country’s Arctic territories, which jeopardizes their integrated development, including the introduction of an innovative vector into it. In this regard, a comprehensive assessment of the existing demographic potential on the territory of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation in conjunction with the assessment of the innovative development of the economy in the area is required. The suggested assessment methodology includes a system of indicators characterizing the natural and mechanical movement of the population, gender and age structure and health of the population, marriage rate, divorce rate and the level of its education, as well as reflecting the creation, implementation and use of innovations. The authors propose to carry out the assessment using scoring methods, natural groups, statistical analysis, interregional comparison, and expert assessments. The final stage of the assessment is the calculation of integral indices for assessing the demographic potential and innovative development of the country’s Arctic territories, presented graphically. Based on the assessment results, the authors divide all subjects into nine clusters. The old-developed regions of the European part of the Russian Arctic during the second stage of the country’s innovative development “lost ground” in most indicators of demographic potential assessment, despite the relatively high estimates of the innovation sphere. The leading positions according to the results of the demographic potential assessment in the context of innovative development belong to the Arctic regions of new development. However, in terms of the development of innovations they are among the outsiders. Thus, the authors outline a weak connection between the demographic and innovative development of the territories of the country’s Arctic zone, or predict a “delayed” effect from the introduction of innovations over time. The authors suggest applying the assessment results in the adjustment and designing of program and strategic documents of state policy in the field of demographic and innovative development of the Arctic territories of Russia.
Finance info: The article was prepared at the expense of action grant for the implementation of the state task “Development of economic and financial mechanisms for the implementation of the demographic potential of the Arctic territories of the Russian Federation in the context of innovative development” (No. AAAA-A17-117033010117-9).
1. Rasporyazhenie Pravitel’stva RF “O Kontseptsii dolgosrochnogo sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2020 goda” ot 17 noyabrya 2008 g. no. 1662-ð (red. ot 10 fevralya 2017 g.). [Order of the Government of the Russian Federation “On the Concept of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the Period Until 2020” of 17 November 2008 no. 1662-R (as amended on February 10, 2017)]. Sobranie zakonodatel’stva Rossiiskoi Federatsii, 2008, no. 47. Art. 5489. (In Russian). 2. Tupikina E. N., Kocheva E. V. Sovershenstvovanie metodiki otsenki indeksa razvitiya chelovecheskogo potentsiala (na primere Dal’nevostochnogo federal’nogo okruga). [Improving the methodology for assessing the human development index (for example, the Far Eastern Federal District)]. Region. ekonomika: teoriya i praktika, 2010, no. 9, pp. 57—63. (In Russian). 3. Kuzin S. I., Konstantinova A. G. Demograficheskii potentsial: sushchnost’ i problemy opredeleniya. [Demographic potential: essence and problems of definition]. Rossiya: tendentsii i perspektivy razvitiya: Sbornik trudov konferentsii. Moscow, In-t nauch. inform. po obshchestv. naukam RAN, 2017, pp. 665—671. (In Russian). 4. Rimashevskaya N. M., Bochkareva V. K., Migranov L. A. et al. Chelovecheskii potentsial rossiiskikh regionov. [Human potential of Russian regions]. Narodonaselenie, 2013, no. 3, pp. 84—141. (In Russian). 5. Rybakovskii L. L. Rezul’taty sovremennoi demograficheskoi politiki Rossii. [The results of modern demographic policy in Russia]. Narodonaselenie, 2014, no. 1, pp. 4—18. (In Russian). 6. Gabdrakhmanov N. Ya. Demograficheskii potentsial Respubliki Tatarstan: analiz, otsenka, territorial’nye razlichiya. [The demographic potential of the Republic of Tatarstan: analysis, assessment, territorial differences]. Avtoref. dis. ... kand. geograf. nauk. Perm’, 2012, 18 p. (In Russian). 7. Ediev D. M. Teoriya i prilozheniya demograficheskikh potentsialov. [Theory and applications of demographic potentials]. Avtoref. dis. ... d-ra fiz.-mat. nauk. Moscow, Vychisl. tsentr RAN, 2008, 36 p. (In Russian). 8. Kozlova O. A., Gladkova T. V., Makarova M. N., Tukhtarova E. Kh. Kachestvo zhizni naseleniya: voprosy otsenki. [Quality of life of the population: assessment issues]. Ekonomist, 2015, no. 8, pp. 80—87. (In Russian). 9. Fauzer V. V. Otsenka demograficheskogo i trudovogo potentsialov Respubliki Komi. [Assessment of the demographic and labor potentials of the Komi Republic]. Izv. Komi nauch. tsentra UrO RAN, 2010, no. 1, pp. 105—111. (In Russian). 10. Sukneva S. A. Demograficheskii potentsial vosproizvodstva naseleniya severnogo regiona: na primere Respubliki Sakha (Yakutiya). [The demographic potential of the reproduction of the population of the northern region: the example of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)]. Dis. ... d-ra ekon. nauk. Moscow, 2011, 335 p. (In Russian). 11. Sivobrova I. A., Nikolaev A. V. Znachenie sotsial’noi riskozashchishchennosti dlya investitsionnoi privlekatel’nosti severnykh territorii. [The value of social danger of the protected investment attractiveness of the northern territories]. Ekonomika i upravlenie, 2012, no. 7, pp. 126—132. (In Russian). 12. Korchak E. A. Migratsionnaya situatsiya v Murmanskoi oblasti v svete realizatsii arkticheskikh interesov Rossii. [The migration situation in the Murmansk region in the light of the implementation of the Arctic interests of Russia]. Region. ekonomika i upr.: elektron. nauch. zhurn., 2019, no. 2 (58), pp. 12. (In Russian). 13. de la Croix D., Gobbi P. E. Population density, fertility and demographic convergence in developing countries. J. of Development Economics, 2017, vol. 127, pp. 13—24. DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.02.003. 14. Cervellati M., Sunde U., Zimmermann K. F. Demographic dynamics and long-run development: insights for the secular stagnation debate. J. of Population Economics, 2016, vol. 30, iss. 2, pp. 401—432. DOI: 10.1007/s00148-016-0626-8. 15. Muenz R. Aging and demographic change in European Societies: main trends and alternative policy options: SP DISCUSSION PAPER. Vol. 703. [S. l.], 2007, 38 p. 16. Bongaarts J. Human population growth and the demographic transition. Philosophical transactions of the royal society. Biological sciences, 2009, vol. 364, pp. 2985—2990. DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2009.0137. 17. Sojka E. Demographic potential of the countries that have applied for the European Union membership. Bull. of geography. Socio-economic series, 2012, vol. 7, pp. 135—145. DOI: 10.2478/v10089-012-0014-4. 18. Sobczyk A., Archuadze Z. Assessment of demographic potential of the Tbilisi metropolitan area with the use of synthetic variable. Folia pomeranae universitatis technologiae stetinensis. Oeconomica, 2016, vol. 85, pp. 147—158. DOI: 10.21005/oe.2016.85.4.15. 19. Sardon J.-P. Recent demographic trends in the developed countries. Population, 2002, vol. 57, pp. 111—156. DOI: 10.2307/3246629. 20. Tukkel’ I. L., Egorov N. E., Detter G. F. et al. Otsenka innovatsionnogo razvitiya regionov Arkticheskoi zony Rossiiskoi Federatsii. [Assessment of the innovative development of the regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation]. Nauch.-tekhn. vedomosti SPbGU. Ekon. nauki, 2017, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 60—71. DOI: 10.18721/JE.10406. (In Russian). 21. Levkina E. V. Otsenka effektivnosti innovatsionnoi deyatel’nosti otraslevykh sistem na mezourovne (na primere rybnoi promyshlennosti Primorskogo kraya). [Evaluation of the effectiveness of innovative activities of industry systems at the mesoscale (for example, the fishing industry of the Primorsky Territory)]. Vopr. innovats. ekonomiki, 2017, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 225—234. DOI: 10.18334/vinec.7.3.38253. (In Russian). 22. Bortnik I. M., Zinov V. G., Kotsyubinskii V. A. et al. Indikatory innovatsionnogo razvitiya regionov Rossii dlya tselei monitoringa i upravleniya. [Indicators of innovative development of Russian regions for monitoring and management purposes]. Innovatsii, 2013, no. 11, pp. 21—32. (In Russian). 23. Sizova O. V., Shishkina A. V. Otsenka rezul’tatov innovatsionnoi deyatel’nosti organizatsii s uchetom faktora vremeni. [Evaluation of the results of innovative activities of organizations, taking into account the time factor]. Vopr. innovats. ekonomiki, 2017, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 125—140. DOI: 10.18334/vinec.7.2.38053. (In Russian). 24. Tsertseil Yu. S., Kookueva V. V. Rol’ innovatsionnykh promyshlennykh klasterov v razvitii regional’noi ekonomiki. [The role of innovative industrial clusters in the development of the regional economy]. Ros. predprinimatel’stvo, 2016, vol. 17, no. 20, pp. 2779—2796. DOI: 10.18334/rp.17.20.36836. (In Russian). 25. Smirennikova E. V., Ukhanova A. V., Voronina L. V. Pokazateli otsenki demograficheskogo potentsiala arkticheskikh territorii Rossiiskoi Federatsii v kontekste innovatsionnogo razvitiya. [Indicators for assessing the demographic potential of the Arctic territories of the Russian Federation in the context of innovative development]. Fundament. issled., 2019, no. 7, pp. 112—118. DOI: 10.17513/fr.42522. (In Russian).