ASSESSMENT OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL OF THE ARCTIC REGIONS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE CONTEXT OF INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT

The article assesses the demographic potential of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation, taking into account the stages of its innovative development. The relevance of the study is due to the need for the formation of an innovative economy, which will help reduce its resource dependence and increase diversification, as well as improve the quality of life of the population. Recently, there has been a “devastation” of the country’s Arctic territories, which jeopardizes their integrated development, including the introduction of an innovative vector into it. In this regard, a comprehensive assessment of the existing demographic potential on the territory of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation in conjunction with the assessment of the innovative development of the economy in the area is required.
The suggested assessment methodology includes a system of indicators characterizing the natural and mechanical movement of the population, gender and age structure and health of the population, marriage rate, divorce rate and the level of its education, as well as reflecting the creation, implementation and use of innovations. The authors propose to carry out the assessment using scoring methods, natural groups, statistical analysis, interregional comparison, and expert assessments. The final stage of the assessment is the calculation of integral indices for assessing the demographic potential and innovative development of the country’s Arctic territories, presented graphically.
Based on the assessment results, the authors divide all subjects into nine clusters. The old-developed regions of the European part of the Russian Arctic during the second stage of the country’s innovative development “lost ground” in most indicators of demographic potential assessment, despite the relatively high estimates of the innovation sphere. The leading positions according to the results of the demographic potential assessment in the context of innovative development belong to the Arctic regions of new development. However, in terms of the development of innovations they are among the outsiders. Thus, the authors outline a weak connection between the demographic and innovative development of the territories of the country’s Arctic zone, or predict a “delayed” effect from the introduction of innovations over time.
The authors suggest applying the assessment results in the adjustment and designing of program and strategic documents of state policy in the field of demographic and innovative development of the Arctic territories of Russia.

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