Bibliographic description:Makosko A.A., Matesheva A.V. Assessment of the long-range pollution trends of the atmosphere in the Arctic zone of Russia in 1980-2050 considering climate change scenarios. Arctic: ecology and economy, 2020, no. 1(37), pp. 45-52. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2020-1-45-52. (In Russian).
The features of the dynamics of long-range atmospheric pollution of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation in 1980—2050 are investigated considering climate change (based on the IPCC scenarios). The calculations of the atmospheric pollution index introduced earlier by the authors are carried out that quantitatively characterize the directions from which the territories of the Russian Arctic are polluted. The calculation results show general trends towards an increase in the meridional (southern) influx of pollutants into the Russian Arctic in the period under review. More pronounced changes in the supply of pollutants are expected mainly in areas below 70° northern latitude, especially in Western and Eastern Siberia and in the eastern part of the Far East. These trends are more pronounced in the more “severe” climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The estimates obtained are important for proposals to ensure the environmental safety of the Arctic zone of Russia, to plan the economic development of the country’s territories that affect atmospheric pollution in the Arctic regions, and to control transboundary air pollution from Europe, Central and Southeast Asia.
Finance info: he work was prepared partly within the framework of State Assignment and with the support of the Basic Research Program of the Presidium of the RAS “Basic scientific research for the development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation”.
1. Vinogradova A. A., Veremeychik A. O. Modelnyye otsenki soderzhaniya antropogennoy sazhi (black carbon) v atmosfere Rossiyskoy Arktiki. [Model estimates of the content of anthropogenic black carbon (black carbon) in the atmosphere of the Russian Arctic]. Optika atmosfery i okeana, 2013, vol. 26, pp. 443—451. (In Russian). 2. Akimov V. À., Kozlov Ê. À., Kosorukov Î. À. Sovremennyye problemy Arkticheskoy zony Rossiyskoy Federatsii. [Actual problems of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation]. Moscow, VNII GOCHS, 2014, 308 ð. (In Russian). 3. Makosko A. A., Matesheva A. V. Dolgosrochnyy prognoz riska dlya zdorovia vsledstviye tekhnogennogo i biogennogo zagryazneniya atmosfery v usloviyakh izmenyayushchegosya klimata. [Long-term prognosis of health risks due to technogenic and biogenic pollution of the atmosphere in a changing climate]. Zdorovye naseleniya Rossii: vliyaniye okruzhayushchey sredy v usloviyakh izmenyayushchegosya klimata. Pod obshch. red. A. I. Grigoryeva. Moscow, Nauka, 2014, pp. 251—267. (In Russian). 4. Chashchin V. P., Gudkov A. B., Popova O. N., Odland Yu. O., Kovshov A. A. Kharakteristika osnovnykh faktorov riska narusheniy zdorovya naseleniya, prozhivayushchego na territoriyakh aktivnogo prirodopolzovaniya v Arktike. [Description of main health deterioration risk factors for populations living on territories of active natural management the Arctic]. Ekologiya cheloveka, 2014, no. 1, ðð. 3—12. (In Russian). 5. Matesheva A. V. O vozmeshchenii ushcherba zdorovyu naseleniya v gorodakh Arkticheskoy zony Rossiyskoy Federatsii ot zagryazneniya atmosfernogo vozdukha. [On compensation of damage to public health in the cities of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation from air pollution]. Arktika: ekologiya i ekonomika, 2017, no. 3 (27), pp. 111—117. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2017-3-111-117. (In Russian). 6. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC. Geneva, Switzerland, 2014, 151 p. 7. Marchuk G. I. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie v probleme okruzhayushhej sredy. [Mathematical modeling in the environmental problem]. Moscow, Nauka, 1982, 320 p. (In Russian). 8. Aloyan A. E. Dinamika I kinetika gazovych primesey i aerozoley v atmosphere. [Dynamics and kinetics of gas impurities and aerosols in the atmosphere]. Moscow, IVM RAN, 2002, 201 p. (In Russian). 9. Penenko V. V., Tsvetova Ye. A., Penenko A. V. Development of variational approach for direct and inverse problems of atmospheric hydrodynamics and chemistry. Proceedings of the RAS. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2015, vol. 51, no. 3, ðð. 311—319. DOI: 10.1134/S0001433815030093. 10. Makosko A. A., Matesheva A. V. Otsenki tendenciy dalnego zagryazneniya atmosfery regionov rossiyskoy Arktiki v XXI v. [Evaluations of the frequency pollution trends of the atmosphere of the regions of the Russian Arctic in the 21st century]. Arktika: ekologiya i ekonomika, 2017, no. 4 (27), pp. 59—71. DOI 10.25283/2223-4594-2017-4-59-71. (In Russian). 11. Makosko A. A., Matesheva A. V. et al. On the trends of long-range air pollution in the territories of the Russian Federation in the 21st century. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2019, vol. 231, iss. 012032. Available at: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/231/1/012032. 12. Kats A. L. Sezonnyye izmeneniya obshchey tsirkulyatsii atmosfery i dolgosrochnyye prognozy. [Seasonal changes in general atmospheric circulation and long-term forecasts]. Leningrad, GIMIZ, 1960, 270 p. (In Russian). 13. NCEP FNL Operational Model Global Tropospheric Analyses, continuing from July 1999. Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Lab. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5065/D6M043C6. 14. Saha S. et al. 2010. NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) Selected Hourly Time-Series Products, January 1979 to December 2010 / Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Lab. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5065/D6513W89. 15. Volodin E., Diansky N. INMCM4 model output prepared for CMIP5 RCP4.5, served by ESGF. World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ. [S. l.], 2013. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.INC4r4. 16. Volodin E., Diansky N. INMCM4 model output prepared for CMIP5 RCP8.5, served by ESGF. World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ. [S. l.], 2013. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.INC4r8.