ASSESSMENT OF THE LONG-RANGE POLLUTION TRENDS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE ARCTIC ZONE OF RUSSIA IN 1980-2050 CONSIDERING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

The features of the dynamics of long-range atmospheric pollution of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation in 1980—2050 are investigated considering climate change (based on the IPCC scenarios). The calculations of the atmospheric pollution index introduced earlier by the authors are carried out that quantitatively characterize the directions from which the territories of the Russian Arctic are polluted.
The calculation results show general trends towards an increase in the meridional (southern) influx of pollutants into the Russian Arctic in the period under review. More pronounced changes in the supply of pollutants are expected mainly in areas below 70° northern latitude, especially in Western and Eastern Siberia and in the eastern part of the Far East. These trends are more pronounced in the more “severe” climate change scenario (RCP8.5).
The estimates obtained are important for proposals to ensure the environmental safety of the Arctic zone of Russia, to plan the economic development of the country’s territories that affect atmospheric pollution in the Arctic regions, and to control transboundary air pollution from Europe, Central and Southeast Asia.

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