ICEBERG RISK ANALYSIS FOR THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE: LNG CARRIER STUDY CASE

The paper addresses the issue of ship/iceberg collision risks during navigation via the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The risk sources considered for ships include both the probability of ship collision with an iceberg and risks of substantial structural damage in case of ship impact against an iceberg.
Analysis of advance detecting systems and analysis of iceberg occurrence in the NSR are performed. Computer simulation of ship collisions in the NSR conditions where a possibility of ship maneuvering is considered demonstrates that the probability of ship/iceberg collisions in the NSR is rather high.
Issues of ship strength after accident under ship hull/iceberg collisions are considered for LNG carriers of MOSS, SPB and GTT No.6 types. When evaluating the hull components load-carrying capacity, full scale tests are preferred. Computer methods for strength evaluation could be also used when validation of computational methods is required.
LNG carrier hull damageability in case of ship/iceberg collisions is estimated. Owing to the double side structure mandatory for LNG carriers, the hull strength is ensured.
The complex analysis demonstrates that the integrated probability of LNG carrier /iceberg collisions and critical hull damaging is small that permits to accentuate the high reliability of LNG carriers in the NSR.

Romanov A. A. Ledovyye usloviya plavaniya v Yuzhnom okeane. [Ice condition of navigation in the Southern Ocean]. AARI. 1996, 119 p. (Vsemirnaya meteorologicheskaya org.; VMO/TD- No. 783). Available at: http://www.aari.ru/gdsidb/docs/wmo/WMO_783_rus.pdf. (In Russian).
2. Aysberg po kursu! Tekhnicheskaya zametka. [Iceberg at the rate! Technical note]. Available at: http://bbc-teplovizor.ru/shownews.php?subaction=showfull&id=1390833834&. (In Russian).
3. Buzuyev A. Ya., Dubovtsev V. F., Zakharov V. F., Smirnov V. I. Usloviya plavaniya sudov vo ldakh morey Severnogo polushariya. [Conditions of navigation of vessel in the ice of the seas of the Northern Hemisphere]. Gl. upr. navigatsii i okeanografii M-va oborony Soyuza SSR. M., 1988, 280 p. (In Russian).
4. Shaposhnikov V. M., Nesterov A. B., Aleksandrov A. A., Vasilik E. G. Safety of LNG transportation in arctic conditions when using systems of various types. Proceedings of OMAE2014, June 8—13, 2014, San Francisco, California, USA.
5. Mezhdunarodnaya simvolika dlya morskikh ledovykh kart i nomenklatura morskikh ldov. [International symbols for sea ice maps and the sea ice nomenclature]. Pod obshch. red. B. A. Krutskikh. L., Gidrometeoizdat, 1984, 56 p. (In Russian).
6. Aleksandrov M. N. Bezopasnost cheloveka na more. [Human Safety of sea]. L., Sudostroyeniye, 1983. (In Russian).