ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF THE COPPER-NICKEL PRODUCTION IMPACT ON THE ECOLOGY OF THE KOLA NORTH: MODELING RESULTS

Gashkina, N. A.¹, Sokolov, A. V.^1,2, Moiseenko, Т. I.¹

1) Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia)
2) Kharkevich Institute of Information Transfer Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia)

The article was received on March 24, 2026

Bibliographic description: Gashkina N. A., Sokolov A. V., Moiseenko Т. I. Assessment and prediction of the copper-nickel production impact on the ecology of the Kola North: modeling results. Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2026, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 419—429. DOI: 10.25283/2223-4594-2026-3-419-429. (In Russian).

Abstract:  The authors examine the results of modeling the dynamics of nickel and copper concentrations in soils, water, and bottom sediments of lakes located within the Pechenganikel smelter’s footprint on the Kola Peninsula, and give a prediction of the rate of recovery and the state of natural environments by 2050, following the closure of the smelter in 2020. They have found that aquatic systems are more responsive to reduced anthropogenic loads, while soils exhibit the greatest inertia. According to the forecast, Ni and Cu high concentrations in lake water will be due to leaching from soils, where metal concentrations will be approximately three times higher than even the elevated regional background.

Keywords: atmospheric deposition, nickel, copper, subarctic aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems

Funding:  The research was carried out within the state assignment of the Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Kharkevich Institute of Information Transfer Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

DOWNLOAD (in Russian)