ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF MAN-MADE RISKS IN THE ARCTIC ZONE OF KRASNOYARSK TERRITORY DURING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS

Postnikova, U. S., Moskvichev, V. V.

1) Mechanical Engineering Research Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russian Federation);
2) Federal Research Center for Information and Computational Technologies (Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation)

The article was received on June 19, 2025

Bibliographic description: Postnikova U. S., Moskvichev V. V. Assessment and Forecasting of Man-made Risks in the Arctic zone of Krasnoyarsk Territory during the Implementation of Investment Projects. Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2026, vol. 16, no. 1.

Abstract:  The development of the Arctic territories of the Russian Federation represents a priority area for socio-economic advancement and national security. The Arctic zone of the Krasnoyarsk Territory is characterized by severe natural and climatic conditions, the presence of strategically important facilities, as well as a high degree of technogenic, environmental, and social vulnerability. The paper considers the regional features of the Arctic area of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, identifies key sources of threats, including industrial development and infrastructure-related risks. A methodology is proposed for the assessment and forecasting of both realized and potential man-made territorial risks using Bayesian networks. Probabilistic-graphical models of cause-and-effect relationships are constructed that allow identifying municipalities with the highest levels of risk. The results contribute to the development of scientifically grounded recommendations aimed at enhancing the overall safety of Arctic territories.

Keywords: Arctic zone of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, realized man-made risks, potential man-made risks, probabilistic and graphical models, Bayesian networks

Funding:  The Russian Science Foundation grant supported the study (project no. 24-79-00015 “Analysis of the Arctic territories safety based on a risk-oriented approach”).

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