THE INFLUENCE OF NATURAL FACTORS ON THE LANDSCAPE FIRE AREAS IN REGIONS OF INTENSIVE OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT IN THE YAMALO-NENETS AUTONOMOUS AREA

Marchukova, O. V., Milyaev, I. A., Gorshkova, M. S., Zherebyateva, N. V., Idrisov I. R.

Tyumen State University (Tyumen, Russian Federation)

The article was received on July 1, 2025

Bibliographic description: Marchukova O. V., Milyaev I. A., Gorshkova M. S., Zherebyateva N. V., Idrisov I. R. The influence of natural factors on the landscape fire areas in regions of intensive oil and gas development in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area. Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2026, vol. 16, no. 1

Abstract:  Using correlation analysis and multiple regression methods, the authors have obtained quantitative estimates of the impact of natural and climatic factors on the fire areas in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area from 2005 to 2024. The fire areas in the oil and gas region of the Russian Arctic have increased by 70% over the past decade, especially in the forest-tundra region, exceeding the flammability in the northern taiga and southern tundra many times over. A decrease in atmospheric moisture and an increase in the number of days without precipitation during the fire-hazardous period explain 99.5% of fire area changes in the forest-tundra of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area.

Keywords: Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area, forest fires, forest tundra, regression analysis, climate change in the Arctic

Funding:  The study was supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation within the framework of the Tyumen Carbon Test Site project (FEWZ-2024-0016).

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