CLIMATE CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION IN THE WHITE SEA AREA AND THEIR CALCULATION USING CMIP6 MODELS UP TO 2099

Tolstikov, A. V.¹, Serykh, I. V.²

¹ Northern water problems institute, Karelian Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Petrozavodsk, Russian Federation)

² Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russian Federation)

The article was received on February 03, 2025

Bibliographic description: Tolstikov A. V., Serykh I. V. Climate changes in precipitation in the White Sea area and their calculation using CMIP6 models up to 2099. Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2025, vol. 15, no. 2. (In Russian).

Abstract  

The authors have studied climate changes in precipitation in the western Russian Arctic (55—70° N and 25—65° E). To analyze the changes that occurred during the period of instrumental observations, they use data from weather stations. Additionally, they reanalyze the ERA5, PREC and MERRA-2 results. The weather station data and reanalysis are generally consistent with each other and demonstrate an increase in precipitation in the region under study. At the same time, both spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the changes that have occurred are observed. Thus, according to ERA5 data, one of the regions with the greatest increase in average daily precipitation between 1940—1969 and 1994—2023 is the White Sea water area (+0.2 mm/d). It is shown that the results of the Historical ensemble experiment of 32 CMIP6 models also demonstrate an increase in average daily precipitation. Thus, between 1940—1969 and 1994—2023 it is +0.08±0.05 mm/d. Moreover, according to the ensemble of 32 CMIP6 models, the increase in precipitation began in the 1980s and continues to the present day. Future changes in precipitation until the end of the 21st century are considered based on the results of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) experiments of the ensemble of 32 CMIP6 models, which shows a further increase in precipitation in the White Sea region. Thus, the increase in average daily precipitation in 2070—2099 as compared to the period 1994—2023 will be +0.11±0.08, +0.16±0.09, +0.21±0.10, +0.27±0.11 mm/d according to the results of the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 experiments, respectively. Thereby, by the end of the 21st century, a more significant increase in precipitation is expected in the north of the region under study than in its south. In the next 30 years, according to the ensemble of CMIP6 models, the average daily precipitation in the White Sea region will increase by +0.07±0.05 mm/d, with little dependence on the SSP scenario.

Keywords: climate change, Arctic, precipitation, White Sea, CMIP6 models, SSP experiments 

Funding:  This study was carried out within the framework of the state assignment of the Institute of Water Problems of the North of the Karelian Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences on topic No.FMEN-2021-0004 “Comprehensive studies of the White Sea and watershed for the development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.”

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