DYNAMICS, DISTRIBUTION AND CLIMATIC CONDITIONS OF RETROGRESSIVE THAW SLUMPS DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE YAMAL PENINSULA (2007—2023)

Sizov, O. S.¹, Mironova, M. A.²

¹ Oil and Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russian Federation)
² Gubkin Oil and Gas University (Moscow, Russian Federation)

The article was received on January 15, 2025

Bibliographic description: Sizov O. S., Mironova M. A. Dynamics, distribution and climatic conditions of retrogressive thaw slumps development in the western part of the Yamal Peninsula (2007—2023). Arctic: Ecology and Economy, 2025, vol. 15, no. 2.  (In Russian).

Abstract 

Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) pose a significant hazard during the development of oil and gas fields on the Yamal Peninsula. The authors determine the dynamics and spatial distribution of retrogressive thaw slumps in the western part of the peninsula using multi-temporal highly detailed space images. They have established that large-scale activation of thermodenudation in this region occurs only in certain years under a unique or rather rare combination of natural and anthropogenic conditions. Having analyzed the archive of urgent meteorological observations at Marresale station for the last 55 years the researchers have identified the key combination of climatic conditions that contribute to the wide development of landslide processes. Such a combination is the early and stable onset of a warm period, elevated air temperatures and precipitation during the summer months (with a steady trend of their increase). The study has contributed to the development of a climatic index of the thermodenudation development risk (CPORT or TDRCI) that takes into account the duration of the period of active temperatures and the sum of precipitation during the warm period of the year. The proposed index unambiguously reflects both extreme retrogressive thaw slumps events in Yamal in 1989 and 2012. In the future, it is possible to validate the index using other northern regions of Western Siberia as an example. A coordinated accounting of meteorological observation data, morphometric parameters of the relief and features of the sheet ice spatial distribution in a given territory creates prerequisites for the practical implementation of a system of monitoring and forecasting the intensity of retrogressive thaw slumps’ development both at the regional and local levels of individual industrial objects.

Keywords: Yamal, retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS), Earth remote sensing (RS), permafrost, sheet ice, climate change 

Funding: 

The research was carried out according to the state assignment of the Oil and Gas Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences on the topic “Improving the efficiency and environmental safety of the hydrocarbon resources development of the shelf and defining the land of the Arctic and Subarctic zones of the Earth in a changing climate” (no. 125020501403-7).

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