DURATION OF RESIDENCE IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC: IMPACT OF MORTALITY AND MIGRATION

Smirnov, A. V.

Institute for Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of the North, Federal Research Center “Komi Scientific Center of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences” (Syktyvkar, Komi Republic, Russian Federation)

The article was received on October 10, 2024

Bibliographic description: Smirnov A. V. Duration of residence in the Russian Arctic: impact of mortality and migration. Arktika: ekologiya i ekonomika. [Arctic: Ecology and Economy], 2025, vol. 15, no. 1. (In Russian).

Abstract

The article examines the duration of residence in municipalities of the Russian Arctic. This is an adaptation of the life expectancy indicator, which takes into account the migration outflow in addition to mortality. The indicator helps to assess the contribution of migration and mortality to the reduction of the demographic potential of the Arctic territories. Starting from the age of 40, the contribution of mortality to population decline exceeds the contribution of migration outflows. The researcher reveals differences in migration attitudes by gender and age, and shows that in rural areas women under 30 are more likely to leave, while men are more likely to move after that age. The research identifies differences between Arctic municipalities in the expected duration of residence according to data from 2015—2022. Particular attention is paid to the key settlements of the Russian Arctic. Residents of the largest Arkhangelsk agglomeration are the least likely to leave. It is shown that the migration intensity among the elderly population is primarily due to the income level in the municipality and the distance to the regional center, while that of the youth is determined by the ethnic composition and development of educational infrastructure. The research is valuable due to the proposed tools that allow us to identify factors simultaneously influencing the human resources of the Arctic both in terms of migration behavior of the population and in terms of life expectancy.

Keywords: migration, mortality, life expectancy, municipalities, spatial development, Russian Arctic

Funding: The research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant, project no. 24-78-10061 (https://rscf.ru/project/24-78-10061/).

DOWNLOAD (in Russian)