MODELS TO PREDICT THE PARAMETERS OF SHIP VOYAGES IN THE ARCTIC: EXISTING APPROACHES AND POSSIBLE WAYS OF DEVELOPMENT

Any information support system for Arctic shipping requires a ship transit model as one of the key elements that allows for strategic analysis, operational planning of vessel voyages, and ice routing of a ship. At the same time, there is no single recognized approach to develop such a model, due to the complexity of ice cover in terms of its impact on shipping.

In this article, we have identified and analyzed three principal approaches to predict the parameters of vessel voyages in the Arctic. They are (1) semi-empirical models to estimate the vessel resistance in ice and then calculate propulsion performance, (2) numerical methods to model ship-ice interaction and calculate ice resistance, (3) statistical models to assess the ship speed based on regression equations or neural networks. Analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach allowed us to propose a concept to develop the ship transit model for practical application.

We suggest combining the elements of different approaches, while in general the model should be based on semi-empirical methods. This is due to their computational simplicity, which is important in ice routing tasks, as well as the need for considering ice resistance along with other types of resistance. To compensate for limitations of a semi-empirical approach, we suggest several directions for further research: (1) scaling the ice resistance to obtain a strict correspondence between the calculated and field values of icebreaking capability, (2) development of a methodology to consider the influence of the season and the region of ship operation, (3) methods to estimate resistance in broken ice of different concentration and arbitrary horizontal size, (4) taking into account the direction of compression relative to the ship course, (5) development of methods to assess ice resistance during icebreaker escort operations. The area of application of statistical approaches in a joint model is to model the influence of ice melting stage, hummocking and the differences in ice conditions along the ship route and in the whole region. The article also highlights several additional issues of combining different approaches.

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